Download e-book for kindle: Bayesian Analysis and Uncertainty in Economic Theory by Richard M. Cyert, Morris H. DeGroot (auth.)

By Richard M. Cyert, Morris H. DeGroot (auth.)

ISBN-10: 9400931638

ISBN-13: 9789400931633

ISBN-10: 9401079226

ISBN-13: 9789401079228

We all started this learn with the target of making use of Bayesian equipment of research to varied elements of monetary thought. We have been drawn to the Bayesian procedure since it appeared the easiest analytic framework to be had for facing determination making less than uncertainty, and the learn offered during this booklet has merely served to bolster our trust within the appropriateness and value of this technique. extra specif­ ically, we think that the concept that of organizational studying is funda­ psychological to determination making less than uncertainty in economics and that the Bayesian framework is the main applicable for constructing that idea. The principal and unifying subject of this booklet is choice making less than uncertainty in microeconomic conception. Our primary objective is to discover the ways that agencies and families make judgements and to strengthen versions that experience a powerful empirical connection. hence, we have now tried to give a contribution to financial conception via formalizing types of the particular seasoned­ cess of selection making below uncertainty. Bayesian method seasoned­ vides the best car for this formalization.

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Extra resources for Bayesian Analysis and Uncertainty in Economic Theory

Example text

Each division is a profit center and is usually managed as though it were an independent firm. The firm sells a number of different products and through its divisions will operate in a number of different market structures in which it may have different market shares (Chandler 1966; Williamson 1975, chapter 8; Caves 1980). The manager of each division will usually be a vice-president, although this person's title may range from manager to president, depending on the size of the firm. The division vice-president will have the power to make pricing and output decisions as well as some capital expenditure decisions.

Also, because the OM will soon acquire relatively precise information about e from the observation X, it will typically not be worthwhile for the OM to spend much time making a careful determination of the prior distribution. In this type of situation it may be convenient to use a standard prior distribution that is suitable as an approximate representation of vague prior information. The standard prior distribution that is used is often an improper distribution in the sense that it is represented by a nonnegative density £(8) for which the integral over the entire space n is infinite rather than 1.

An explanation must be found for the deficiency of an actual value from its target, whether the target relates to a particular division or to the firm. This explanation must be presented in terms of the present and recent past values of the vectors X. Y. and Z. The search for an explanation depends on the relationship between the particular target variables being considered and the variables composing X. Y. and Z. If no satisfactory explanation is found, the firm takes no new actions but rather waits for more information during the following month.

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Bayesian Analysis and Uncertainty in Economic Theory by Richard M. Cyert, Morris H. DeGroot (auth.)


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